26/07/2003

Lies, Half-Truths and WMD

"Simply stated, there is no doubt that Saddam Hussein now has weapons of mass destruction." Dick Cheney, August 26, 2002

"Right now, Iraq is expanding and improving facilities that were used for the production of biological weapons." George W. Bush, September 12, 2002

“Our intelligence officials estimate that Saddam Hussein had the materials to produce as much as 500 tons of sarin, mustard and VX nerve agent.” George W. Bush, January 28, 2003

“We know that Saddam Hussein is determined to keep his weapons of mass destruction and is determined to make more.” Colin Powell, February 5, 2003

“We have sources that tell us that Saddam Hussein recently authorized Iraqi field commanders to use chemical weapons - the very weapons the dictator tells us he does not have.” George Bush, February 8, 2003

“Intelligence gathered by this and other governments leaves no doubt that the Iraq regime continues to possess and conceal some of the most lethal weapons ever devised.” George Bush, March 18, 2003

“I have no doubt we're going to find big stores of weapons of mass destruction.” Kenneth Adelman, US Defense Policy Board , March 23, 2003

“We know where they are. They are in the area around Tikrit and Baghdad.” Donald Rumsfeld March 30, 2003

“We are learning more as we interrogate or have discussions with Iraqi scientists and people within the Iraqi structure, that perhaps he destroyed some, perhaps he dispersed some. And so we will find them.” George Bush April 24, 2003

“Before people crow about the absence of weapons of mass destruction, I suggest they wait a bit.” Tony Blair, 28 April, 2003

“I never believed that we'd just tumble over weapons of mass destruction in that country.” Donald Rumsfeld May 4, 2003

“I just don't know whether it was all destroyed years ago - I mean, there's no question that there were chemical weapons years ago - whether they were destroyed right before the war, (or) whether they're still hidden.” Maj. Gen. David Petraeus, Commander 101st Airborne May 13, 2003

“Given time, given the number of prisoners now that we're interrogating, I'm confident that we're going to find weapons of mass destruction.” Gen. Richard Myers, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff, May 26, 2003

“For bureaucratic reasons, we settled on one issue, weapons of mass destruction (as justification for invading Iraq) because it was the one reason everyone could agree on.” Paul Wolfowitz, May 28, 2003

"I don't believe anyone that I know in the administration ever said that Iraq had nuclear weapons." Donald Rumsfeld, May 14, 2003

"We believe he has, in fact, reconstituted nuclear weapons." Dick Cheney, March 16, 2003

In the months leading up to the US-led invasion of Iraq, the Bush-Blair regimes produced reams of documents to prove Iraq was stockpiling weapons of mass destruction and how Saddam could realistically fire them within 45 minutes. As they geared up for ‘war’ they reiterated time and again that their intention was solely to rid Iraq of its WMD and make the world a more stable place for decent and god-fearing people to live in. They campaigned long and hard for their war – for the support of their peers in governments and for the backing of the US and British electorates and, convinced they had the mandate for war, invaded Iraq in March. Three months after the end of the fighting no ‘illegal’ weapons have been found and the odds of finding any diminish greatly as the days go by.

The recent admission from a British security chief that the 50 page "intelligence" report on Iraq's WMD presented by Tony Blair to Parliament on 24 September last year - and used as the Labour government’s evidence for Iraq’s illicit weapons inventory - was spiced up on the government’s instructions came as no real surprise for those who have scrutinised the unfolding of the US-UK war with Iraq and the Labour government’s desperation to be part of it. Since the transatlantic plan to invade Iraq was hatched it was apparent that Truth would again be the first casualty of war.

For their part, the CIA and their British counterparts have tried to distance themselves from their respective governments these past few weeks, with unprecedented briefings and leaks to the press, desperate to avoid the backlash that has lead to some serious questioning in London and Washington.

On a visit to Poland on 30th May, Tony Blair told a press conference that finding the weapons in Iraq was "not the most urgent priority". And yet, according to the claims of the dossier that he defends, Saddam Hussein "has a useable chemical and biological weapons capability" and that his "current military planning specifically envisages the use" of these weapons. For months we had the Blair government ramming the WMD issue down our throats, pleading for our support for his war with Saddam, who threatened the civilisation we cherished Yet as Saddam and his military top brass, who presumably know about these WMD, which are yet to be found, are still on the run, we are told that finding the weapons is not is not an urgent priority?

Also now discredited by the CIA is the evidence US Sec of State Colin Powell eagerly displayed to the UN Security Council at the beginning of February. Powell provided explicit particulars of the key players in Iraq’s WMD programme as well as the sites that are now under US military control. Nevertheless, the biologically-armed "missile brigade", which he claimed was situated outside Baghdad has proved to be a figment of his imagination and the weapons scientists he informed the world were afraid of talking because of Saddam’s reach have not yet disclosed any secrets. As with the alleged "poison camp" near Khurmal, its labyrinth of tunnels and complex chemical communication network, so too with the photos of twenty or so Baghdad-based al-Qaeda members the UN was presented with. No evidence whatsoever.

In spite of every quality newspaper demanding answers from Blair in the wake of the secret services admission, Blair, it seemed, was learning nothing. Rather than running for cover he began blurting more lies, claiming that Iraq tried to purchase uranium from the African state of Niger. The documentary evidence this fresh allegation was based on has since been confirmed a forgery by the International Atomic Energy Authority. Indeed, the Bush administration was aware that this evidence was bogus a year earlier – something Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice have since admitted. Moreover, early last year Vice President Dick Cheney sent a former US ambassador in Africa to Niger to look into the story. Although the latter brought back word that the documents were not genuine, this was not sufficient to prevent the use of these documents as part of Bush’s rationale for the invasion of Iraq.

The sorry situation becomes more pathetic. US Secretary of Defence, Donald Rumsfeld has lately offered that the reason Saddam’s WMD can’t be found is because they were destroyed before the war started. In other words the US-Britain invaded Iraq to rid the region of weapons Saddam never had and indeed that Saddam claimed he never had and which the UN weapons inspectors suggested he never had. If this was the case, then Saddam could never have been in breach of the famous resolution 1441, which was the justification for war.
Critics might consider that in light of recent revelations Blair should resign and that Bush should be impeached. Surely politicians should not be allowed to lie like this! But hold on. Lying is the trade of politicians under capitalism.

Back in 1925, Hitler wrote in Mein Kampf: “This broad mass of a nation…will more easily fall victim to a big lie than a small one. ” Blair and Bush are fully aware of the power of the big lie, so little wonder they thought they could get away with it. Moreover, they are fully aware their support base swallow lies every living moment of the day. For the workers’ part they are lied to from the cradle to the grave: at school with distortions of history and the myth about a God up above; in the workplace, as producers, lied to by their bosses and at home as consumers bombarded with the myths perpetuated by the advertising industry.

To be sure, the entire capitals edifice depends for its continued survival on the promotion of lies, half truths and the distortion of facts. So powerful is the capitalist distortion machine that it takes all our powers of concentration, memory recall and skills of research just to separate the simplest of lies from fantasy. This constant digest of misinformation perhaps explains the amnesia the majority of workers appear to suffer from. And what is exasperating is that in spite of all the evidence revealing the architects of war to be the conniving and scheming rapscallions we always knew them to be, it is a fair bet that workers will again be ready to believe their lies when Iran is found to be stockpiling WMD, to be aiming for a nuclear capacity and harbouring al-Qaeda terrorists.

It’s a fair bet now that WMD will be found in Iraq – planted there by corrupt western regimes desperate to justify their invasion of Iraq. And this evidence will likely be used not only to prop up the discredited Messrs Bush and Blair but also to malign the anti-war movement - which claimed this was a war for oil - and to further strengthen their case for a continuation of the “war on terror”.

In the months ahead be careful what you swallow

11/07/2003

Curbing China's Designs on Oil

Make no mistake about it – the hell about to be unleashed in the Middle East has far less to do with transatlantic designs to curb Saddam and his weapons of mass destruction and everything to do with US control of the region’s oil supplies.

The US has long been aware that its own oil supplies were not going to last forever. Indeed, it is now estimated that existing US oil deposits will be exhausted within 25-30 years, which is about the time that China will have the same oil demands as the US. With this realisation the US is now securing its future control of the world’s oil supplies – hence its operation since 9/11 to surround Asian oil supplies with US military bases, a move that also puts US bases within striking distance of China.

Having already installed its military throughout Central Asia, the US is now in the process of doing the same in Western Asia. As China endeavours to arrange its future supplies of oil and gas, it finds itself everywhere blocked by the US. This much was hinted at in the recent US National Security Strategy with Bush announcing America’s right of defence (with military action) to any threats to its interests.

How does China enter the equation you may ask? Aside from the fact that China will become a leading oil importer within the next decade, the US has long since recognised China as a likely threat to its plan to dominate the markets of East and South-East Asia. But for the moment, curbing China’s designs on oil is a chief concern of the US. It can sort out the problem of China as a commercial rival in time.

China has been yearning for a gas pipeline from the Caspian region to China since around 1995. Intent on creating a security-cum-economic organisation for the planned pipeline, China took steps to initiate a group called the “Shanghai Five” (later six) consisting of China, Russia, and the significant Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and later Uzbekistan). Ostensibly, the idea for the group was to control fundamentalism and terrorism in the region (stretching to China’s westernmost Xinjiang province). Conversely, with the US’s invasion of Afghanistan, and the setting up of its military bases in the very countries who were to be in the Shanghai grouping, China’s plan was sabotaged. Later, during a trip to Iran, Chinese president Jiang Zemin stated that “‘Beijing’s policy is against strategies of force and the U.S. military presence in Central Asia and the Middle East region’.... Beijing would work together with developing nations to counter American ‘hegemonism.’”

Last year, Chinese firms purchased two Indonesian fields for $585 million and $262 million, respectively. Moreover, Indonesian president Megawati Sukarnoputri has visited China twice since 2001, hoping to bag a $9 billion contract to supply liquid natural gas to power industries in southern China. In time with this the US increased its activities in the Indonesian neighbourhood, coercing the Philippines into accepting US “help” in rooting out fundamentalists, patrolling the Malacca straits with the Indian navy, and forcing Indonesia to accept US ‘cooperation’ in containing Al Qaeda elements in Indonesia itself. Back in December of 2001, a RAND Corporation presentation to a US Congress committee on “threats to the security and stability of Southeast Asia and to US security interests in the region,” outlined a chief area of concern as being “China’s emergence as a major regional power.” It argued that “China’s assertiveness will increase as its power grows.” It conjectured that “conflict could be triggered by energy exploration or exploitation activities”, and suggested the formation of a “comprehensive security network in the Asia-Pacific region.” Departing from the line that it was hunting for a handful of Abu Sayyaf guerrillas in the Philippines, the RAND Corporation says that “the US should provide urgently needed air defence and naval patrol assets to the Philippines to help Manila re-establish deterrence vis-a-vis China and give a further impetus to the revitalization of the United States-Philippine defence relationship.... the US should expand and diversify its access and support arrangements in Southeast Asia to be able to effectively respond in a timely way to unexpected contingencies. After all, six months ago, who would have thought that US armed forces would be confronted with the need to plan and execute a military campaign in Afghanistan?” Like the US, China simply cannot ignore its reliance on west Asian oil. China has oil field development contracts with those very countries in west Asia targeted by US sanctions—Iraq, Iran, Libya and Sudan. With this entire region now to be besieged with the invasion of Iraq, China’s deals are destined to be dealt the same severe blow as its plan for a central Asian pipeline. Scarcely startling, then, that “Chinese leaders believe that the US seeks to contain China and [the US] is therefore a major threat to its [China’s] energy security”, as the US-China Security Review Commission’s report points out. (“China digs for Middle East oil, US gets fired up”, Reuters, 24/9/02).

20/06/2003

A Northern Assembly

On the 8th May this year the government’s Regional Assemblies (Preparations) Bill received Royal Assent – reportedly the next step to the establishment of elected regional assemblies inclusive of the Northern Assembly.

In welcoming the latest step towards devolution, Local Government Minister Nick Raynsford announced:

“With this Bill the Government has sought to give power and responsibility back to the people. To make our politics more open, more accountable and more inclusive…The regions now have a real choice about their future. Choice is at the very heart of this Act, in keeping with our wider policy of devolution to the English regions. We believe local people are best placed to make the decisions that directly affect them.”

Since then, a lot has been spoken about a Northern Assembly and how it would further democratise politics, empower us and enrich all our lives no end. And pretty soon, it appears, steps will be taken to hold a referendum in order that we northerners can vote for or against this most wonderful of New Labour reforms to the political landscape.

We should be flattered, but don't be fooled. These proposals are part of a smokescreen to disguise the fact that the Labour Party cannot deliver, and no longer wants to deliver, social reforms aimed at shifting wealth and power from the privileged few to working people.

Labour has always accepted the profit system. They used to believe they could humanise it by social reform legislation. Not any longer. Bitter experience has taught them that where reforms and profits come into conflict, it is reforms that have to give way. The last Labour government under Callahan ended up applying this and Blair had promised to do the same even before he became Prime Minister.

The Labour Party fully accepts now that priority has to be given to profits and no longer promises more spending on social reforms. But to distinguish itself from the Tories, Labour still wants to retain a reforming. But how? By finding reforms which do not come into conflict with profits. Constitutional reforms fit the bill perfectly. They don’t interfere with profit making and thus new Labour does not upset its backers in big business. Moreover, Blair’s plans give rise to the illusion of change – as if the government is really doing something. It is in this light – as with the establishment of a Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly – that the government’s proposals should be seen.

Constitutional reform is of no benefit or relevance to us. It leaves our lives and the problems the profit system causes completely unchanged. Exploitation through the wages system continues. Unemployment continues. A crumbling health service, a chaotic transport system, a polluted environment, failing and closing schools, rising crime and drug addiction and the general breakdown of society all continue. As far as solving these problems are concerned, constitutional reform is just a useless irrelevancy.

Deficient Democrats
Naturally, Labour wraps its irrelevant, constitutional reforms up in democratic rhetoric. An elected Northern Assembly, we are told, would be an extension of democracy, bringing power nearer to the people, so how can Socialists not be in favour of this?

Yes. Socialists are in favour of democracy, and socialism will be a fully democratic society, but full democracy is not possible under capitalism. Supporters of capitalism who talk about "democracy" always mean only political democracy since economic democracy - where people would democratically run the places where they work - is out of the question under capitalism, based as it is on these workplaces being owned and controlled by and for the benefit of a privileged minority.

You can have the most democratic constitution imaginable but this won't make any difference to the fact that profits have to come before meeting needs under capitalism. The people's will to have their needs met properly is frustrated all the time by the operation of the economic laws of the capitalist system which no political structure, however democratic, can control.

It is not imperfections in the political decision-making process that are the problem but the profit system and its economic laws. And the answer is not democratic reform of capitalism's political structure but the replacement of capitalism by socialism.

As a society based on common instead of class ownership of the means of production, socialism will fulfil the first condition for a genuine democracy. Because it will be a classless society without a privileged wealthy class, everyone can have a genuinely equal say in the way things are run. Some will not be more equal than others, as they are under capitalism, because they own more wealth. Socialism will be a society where the laws of profit no longer operate since common ownership and democratic control will allow people to produce to meet their needs instead of for the profit of a few as today.

The argument about elected regional assemblies bringing power nearer to the people might have something in it if, even within the limited context of mere political democracy, the proposed assemblies were going to have some real powers. But, quite simply, they are not.
All their money is to come from the central government, and the only "power" they will have will be to rearrange slightly how the limited amount of funds they will be given is to be spent. In other words, they will have no more power than existing borough and county councils.

They will be part of the administrative arm of central government and their members will be no more than elected civil servants spending central government money. All that would happen would be the introduction of another layer of elected bureaucrats. Another trough for the professional politicians to get their snouts into perhaps, but of no significance to ordinary people.

If our rulers want to reform the machinery of capitalist government in this way, that's up to them. But spare us the charade that it's some great extension of democracy. Has the lot of the average Welsh or Scottish worker improved since the establishment of the Welsh Assembly and Scottish Parliament? No. Has there been a marked drop in poverty, crime and a lessening of all the other social ills we equate with capitalism? Hadaway! Nick Raynsford, quoted earlier, may well declare that having a Northern Assembly means we have more choice – it is the government line he is paid handsomely to spin – but what choice have you when you are unemployed or low waged? Every aspect of your life is subordinated to the worst exigencies of the drive to make profit. If the time comes for a vote on a Northern Assembly, socialists shall indeed be voting, but not by placing an ‘X’ in the yes or no boxes, but by writing “Socialism” across our ballot paper. If you want socialism, we suggest you do the same, as a way of registering your support for world socialism

29/04/2003

Who's Looting Who? The further destruction of Iraq

As riotous mobs pillaged Baghdad's Archaeological Museum and put to the torch the National Library, buildings housing the relics thousands of years of Mesopotamian culture, US troops sat back and did nothing, as if urging Iraqis to destroy their own past, in order for Washington to control their present and future, in true Orwellian fashion. The forces of globocop also held back while these same liberty-seeking Iraqis dealt the same destructive blow to the Ministry of Industry, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Planning, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Irrigation, the Ministry of Trade, the Ministry of Culture and the Ministry of Information, indeed the entire remnants of a state structure crippled since the last Gulf War. Significantly, US troops could be found protecting the HQ of Iraq’s secret police, the Oil Ministry as well as the North Oil Company, a state owned enterprise responsible for the country’s northern oil fields.

Colonel William Mayville, informed the assembled international press that the US wanted to impart an even simpler message: "Hey, don't screw with the oil."

The verbose Donald Rumsfeld, US Sec for Defence explained away the carnage in simple terms: “It’s untidy…And Freedom’s untidy and free people are free to make mistakes and commit crimes.” Rumsfeld should certainly know, representing one of the biggest criminal gangs in political history.

The west may despair at the looting of museums and libraries in Baghdad, but is it not the case that this is just what the Bush-Cheney regime have been doing back home since they hijacked the White House? While the law has been distracted, they have raided the treasury, ransacked the environment and demolished civil liberties. And what were Enron, WorldCom and Xerox doing if they were not looting? In the biggest heist in the annals of corporate robbery, CEOs and finance officers borrowed many millions from cooperative banks, using the money to force up company stock prices, and in so doing increasing the value of their options. Between 1994 and 1999, inclusive, $1.22 trillion was borrowed by non-financial corporations. Of that figure, corporations used just 15.3 per cent for capital expenditures. They used 57 per cent of it, $697.4 billion, to buy back stock and thus enrich themselves. Corporate USA could surely show the looting hoards of Baghdad a thing or two. And who do we find heading the Iraqi National Congress? A US puppet, now back in Iraq and set to wheel and deal on behalf of Uncle Sam. None other than Ahmad Chalabi who, in 1992, was tried by a Jordanian court in his absence, on 31 charges of embezzlement, theft, misuse of depositor funds and currency speculation and sentenced to 22 years' imprisonment. Just the man for the job.

Like a faint voice crying beneath the rubble, the International Committee of the Red Cross could be found remonstrating about the violence and unconstrained looting which has prohibited it distributing desperately needed humanitarian aid. It pointed out how US unwillingness to attempt to bring the chaos and destruction to a halt was in breach of the Geneva Convention. However, if you can dismiss other international treaties with a wave of the hand, invade countries without UN support, refuse to acknowledge various international principles and agreements then why give a fuck for the Geneva Convention? The US had already announced its intention to rubbish the GC when it began imprisoning Moslems on spurious 9/11-related charges in Guantanamo Bay, depriving them of legal advice, even using sensory deprivation and beatings. And isn’t there something in the GC about cluster bombs and similar weaponry, the beating of Iraqi prisoners and the parading of the same unfortunates naked through the streets of Baghdad?

Contracts
No sooner is Baghdad ‘secure’ than the US awards a huge reconstruction contract to Kellogg, Brown & Root, a subsidiary of Halliburton, and a company headed, three years ago, by vice president Dick Cheney. Haliburton, incidentally, still pays Cheney a $1 million retainer per year and he’s worth every dime.

Two years ago, the Pentagon awarded Kellogg, Brown and Root a 10-year contract known as the Logistics Civil Augmentation Program (LOGCAP) - a "cost-plus-award-fee, indefinite-delivery/ indefinite-quantity service" or, in other words, a situation now exists whereby the federal government has unrestricted directive and resources to send Kellogg, Brown and Root anywhere in the world to run military operations for a profit.

Prior to the invasion of Iraq Halliburton (or rather 1,800 Kellogg, Brown and Root employees) could be found working beside US troops in Kuwait and Turkey under a deal worth close to a billion dollars. US Army sources claimed they were constructing tent cities and providing logistical support for the invasion as well as to other hot spots in the "war on terrorism.”

The Cheney-Halliburton-US war machine saga is the typical military-industrial-political menage-a-trois . As Secretary of Defence under Bush Snr. (that’s the Bush with a few more brain cells), Cheney paid Brown and Root services (now Kellogg, Brown and Root) $3.9 million to detail how private corporations could assist the U.S. Army as Cheney eradicated thousands of Army jobs. Then Brown and Root were awarded a five-year contract to provide logistics for the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers all over the globe. When, in 1995, Cheney became CEO, Halliburton jumped from 73rd to 18th on the Pentagon's directory of top contractors, benefiting - according to the Centre for Public Integrity - from at least $3.8 billion in federal contracts and taxpayer-insured loans.

Fundamentalist resistance
The US State Department, acknowledges the level the anti-American feeling across the Middle East and the resistance its corporations will meet as they enter Iraq and further foresees that it will have to maintain a presence in Iraq for quite some time – already 4 military bases are being planned in the country. On Newsnight recently, Rumsfeld crony Ken Aldeman stated that the US wanted democracy right across the Middle East. One Arab commentator countered the assertion, stating that if the oppressive regimes of the Middle East were ever to undergo regime change and hold democratic elections, then this would surely mean increased opposition to US presence and the designs of its corporations. Rather than have Arab leaders silence US opposition, the US presence would instead fan the flames of Arab fanaticism. Already there is a growing radicalism, with mass meetings of the Shia community in the country’s mosques.

Back in 1991, and the defeat of Saddam following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the US purposely held back from going the full hog and overthrowing the Ba’athist regime, even withdrawing their support for the Northern Kurds and the Marsh Arabs once they had promised to back any rebellion against Baghdad. The reason was simple, Saddam’s ruling shia clan held the country together. Were he to be toppled the country would fragment into warring factions, leaving the shia (who make up the bulk of the Iraqi population) in control. It is this threat of an anti-American shia backlash that necessitates a continued US presence in defence of its regional oil and gas interests. The US control over Iraq will become so intense the country will mirror a US state.

Bush and his architects will undoubtedly strive to build a new Iraq now that the museums and national archives can no longer remind them of their culture and heritage. In the proverbial wings a new US-style culture awaits the Iraqi working class - a McDonaldised Iraq ruled by westernised marionettes and serviced by US corporations. In years to come expect to glance down into your trainers to find a label saying “Made in Iraq” and to watch TV crews filming in Iraq setting interviewers against the backdrop of a Starbucks coffee house.

Lets get one thing straight. This invasion had nothing to do with ridding the world of weapons of mass destruction or liberating an oppressed people from a tyrannical regime. After all Saddam not only came to power in a CIA backed coup; he was then provided with his chemical weapons by the US, keen he should serve as a buffer to the spread of Iranian-style militant Islam which threatened the regions oil supplies and trade routes.

The US did not wage war with Saddam simply to leave once he was toppled. They mean to stay put for a long time, even if they succeed in setting up a stooge, US-friendly regime. Globocop is in Iraq to strengthen their control over the region’s oils reserves and to further use the region as a base from which the Arab world can be policed. Indeed, logic dictates the US cannot leave. Devoid of an American military presence, Iraq would fragment. The old religious, ethnic, regional and tribal divisions would only intensify if an American-appointed puppet government were to establish "democracy".

It is just this threat of instability the US thrives on – the never ending pretexts for the overt use of US force in pursuit of the interests of its corporate elite. The world is being looted like never before by a criminal gang who rationalise their crimes with a newspeak the gullible are all to keen to digest– “the war on terror”, “bringing democracy to the world”. In truth this is the US saying “the world is ours. Interfere and we’re coming for you.” In this new AMERICAN CENTURY there are certainly looters and looters. Be afraid.

01/03/2003

Manifest Destiny

At the end of his State of the Union address, a speech hypocritically punctuated with references to the US as the champion of liberty and democracy, the saviour of oppressed people everywhere, President Bush declared that “the liberty we prize is not America’s gift to the world, but God’s gift to humanity.”

The message is simple. The US is enacting God’s will with its constant invasions of far away countries. It’s right to intervene anywhere it sees fit is conferred by divine right. This is hardly a new idea. Defending the US annexation of Texas in 1845, John O’Sullivan asserted that the US was simply fulfilling its ‘manifest destiny’ with ”the development of the great experiment of liberty and federated self-government.”

References to God and the US’s divine mission now fuse every speech Bush makes with reference to Iraq. His unique brand of divine right imperialism - his promise to bring democracy and freedom to the people of Iraq - now accompanies the usual rhetoric about ridding the world of a mad man.

We can only assume the writers of Bush speeches suffer massive bouts of historical amnesia, for this journal has several times in the past had cause to quote comments by senior US officials in relation to Iraq.

We need only observe Madeline Albright’s (former UN Ambassador) comment, when asked her opinion of the 500,000 Iraqis who had died since sanctions were imposed. She replied it was a “price worth paying.”

Colin Powell, now seated on the right hand of Bush, was once asked his opinion of the number of Iraqi civilians killed during the Gulf War. He replied: “Frankly, that’s not a figure that bothers me.” Indeed, the number of civilians killed overseas never bothers US policy makers. When Vietnam invaded Cambodia to put an end to Pol Pot's bloody massacre of 2 million civilians, it was the US who supported a Chinese invasion and the US who sided with the Khmer Rouge. And where was the US when 1 million civilians were being butchered in Rwanda? Again it was the US who propped up other murderers who massacred their own people in their tens of thousands - Noriega, Pinochet Mobuto, Sukarto, Sukarno, Amin, Trujillo, Marcos, Papa Doc and Savimbi. On top of this the US has helped topple 40 governments since 1945 and subverted elections in another 23 countries. Always to further the interests of their corporate elite and always to the detriment of human rights and civilians who desire only peace. Whilst Bush is keen to find a link between Saddam and Islamic terrorism it is to be remembered that during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, the US funded islamic zealots to the tune of $6 billion; training the terrorists of the future - some now prisoners of the US in Cuba - in US military bases such as Camp Peary, Camp Picket, Harvey Point and Fort Bragg. When it comes to human rights abuses and terrorism, the USA is top of the premiere league of rogues states. Bush's grievance with Saddam has nothing to do with saving lives and everything to do with securing US access to the region's oil and gas supplies

02/02/2003

Madmen and Specialists

Remember the 11,000 page report that Iraq handed to the UN and which pertains to its weapons of mass destruction? As we have previously reported it was immediately seized by the United States and vetted before being distributed to the other 4 permanent members of the security council, with an edited version being given to the remaining members of the UN Security Council two weeks later.

Not much has been heard of the report and little wonder, for it names names. It lists the 150 plus western companies that assisted with Iraq’s WMD programme, including some who were still helping build up Iraq’s conventional arsenal a year ago. Some eighty German and twenty-four US companies are reported to have provided Saddam with the equipment and know-how to build his weapons arsenal from 1975 onwards.

It is not certain who leaked the document to Germany’s Die Tageszeitung newspaper, but it’s a fair bet it came from Baghdad which is keen to humiliate the alliance massing against it. Perhaps Saddam is all too aware of the hypocrisy and fork tongued cant of the Bush-Blair coalition. Certainly he is aware that the west armed Iraq to the teeth during its war with Iran, when Iraq was seen as a buffer to the spread of militant Islam from Iran and a threat to western oil interests in the region.

Die Tageszeitung reports: “From about 1975 onwards, these companies are shown to have supplied entire complexes, building elements, basic materials and technical know-how for Saddam Hussein’s programme to develop nuclear, chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction…They also supplied rockets and complete conventional weapons systems.”

And who are these US companies? I provide a list below and the category of military know-how they assisted with (A-nuclear, K-Chemical, B-biological and R-Rockets):

1. Honeywell (R,K). 2. Spektra Physics (K), 3. Semetex (R). 4. TI Coating(A,K).
5. UNISYS (A,K). 6. Sperry Corp (R,K). 7. Tektronix (R,A). 8. Rockwell (K).
9. Leybold Vacuum Systems (A). 10. Finnigan-MAT-US (A). 11. Hewlett Packard (A,R,K). 12. Dupont (A). 13. Eastman Kodak (R). American Type Culture Collection (B). 15. Alcolac International (C). 16. Consarc (A). 17. Carl Zeis-U.Ss (K). 18. Cerberus Ltd (A). 19. Elkectronic Associates (R) 20. International Computer Systems. 21. Bechtel (K). 22. EZ Logic Data Systems Inc. (R). 23. Canberra Industries Inc. (A). 24. Axel Electronics Inc. (A).

With Bush now fully intent on spreading his war on terror around the world and seeking to forge ahead with his Star Wars programme we can expect none of the above will be called upon to account for their relationship with a tyrannical regime. For one thing they will be busy supplying their own. Bush has already increased US military spending to unprecedented limits - $380 billion this year. Within 5 year it is set to increase to $500 billion per annum. Indeed, the US military industrial think tanks have been highly instrumental in providing the rationale for a ‘war’ with Iraq and developing concepts such as a ‘pre-emptive war’. And, as you have guessed, many a former defence company executive and consultant are well represented in the Bush administration, wielding immense influence on behalf od weapons manufacturers. And why not? War and hyped threats to the national security means bigger expenditure on weapons and massive profits.

16/11/2002

The Logic behind that UN Resolution on Iraq

After weeks of debating, the UN Security Council hammered together a unanimous resolution setting harsh terms for Iraqi disarmament, and cautioning there would be brutal consequences for any further defiance.


Bluntly, cleverly, the UN has crafted a situation where Iraq not only has to prove that it has eradicated all of its weapons of mass destruction (WMD), it also has to verify that it never possessed certain WMD. This seems something of a Catch 22 - for if Iraq never possessed the alleged WMD in the first place, then how can it prove that it never possessed them? And woe betides Iraq if it can’t prove that it never had something others say it has had. All Globocop has to do is affirm it does not believe Iraq or declare the findings of the weapons inspectors invalid and begin an attack on the grounds that Bush and his fellow hawks were right all along, that the scheming and devious Saddam is just extra clever at hiding the evidence.


For Saddam’s part, he has insisted he will move to defuse the crisis by complying with the resolution and cooperating fully with the UN inspectors. The level of compliance and cooperation he will afford the inspectors will undoubtedly determine future events. As before, this weapons inspectorate will be acting on CIA intelligence and will undoubtedly be seeking to manipulate a situation that will lead to a US response. What is less certain is just what will transpire if Saddam really complies 100% with the terms of the UN resolution and cooperates wholeheartedly with the weapons inspectors. As far as the UN is concerned he will have honoured the UN resolution and can stay in power – no regime change!


But could the US really stomach a situation in which Saddam stays in power, an obstacle once again to Bush’s ambitions to make this century – as his father once prophesised – ‘another American century?; a barrier to the corporate interests of US oil giants? How would such a situation be squared with the ambitions of US capitalism as evidenced increasingly in the belligerent and imperialistic tone of foreign policy documents these past ten years?


We had, cause recently to report on the Bush administration's foreign policy objectives outlined in "National Security Strategy" document, (also known as the "Bush Doctrine" even though it was penned by National Security Adviser Condoleeza Rice). It states quite brusquely: "The President has no intention of allowing any foreign power to catch up with the huge lead the United States has opened since the fall of the Soviet Union more than a decade ago." The document goes on to say: "Our forces will be strong enough to dissuade potential adversaries from pursuing a military build-up in hopes of surpassing, or equalling, the power of the United States."


We have also commented how the "Bush Doctrine" resembles a similar document, (which we have also reported on) - a1992 Pentagon paper written by hawks Dick Cheney and Paul Wolfowitz that announced that the United States will aim to "prevent the re-emergence of a new rival…This is a dominant consideration underlying the new regional defence strategy and requires that we endeavour to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources would under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power."


Lately, The New York Times ran a story outlining how "the White House is developing a detailed plan ... to install an American-led military government in Iraq if the United States topples Saddam Hussein. ... In the initial phase, Iraq would be governed by… [someone who would]… assume the role that Gen. Douglas MacArthur served in Japan. ... In contemplating an occupation, the administration is scaling back the initial role for Iraqi opposition forces in a post-Hussein government." The article continued: "as long as the coalition partners administered Iraq, they would essentially control the second-largest proven oil reserves in the world." Which is what really concerns the US. Allowing a coalition a say in the distribution of Iraqi oil? Think again, Chirac, Putin and Blair. There’s profits to be had.


Writing in The Guardian, November 5th, George Monbiot reported on the recent findings of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre:


“As available reserves decline, the world's oil-hungry nations are tussling to grab as much as they can for themselves. Almost everywhere on earth, the United States is winning. It is positioning itself to become the gatekeeper to the world's remaining oil and gas. If it succeeds, it will both secure its own future supplies and massively enhance its hegemonic power… In the Middle East, the only nation which could significantly increase its output is Iraq.”


Monbiot further highlights a 2001 a report sponsored by the US Council on Foreign Relations and the Baker Institute for Public Policy which outlines some of the implications of this decline for US national security. The report states: "The world is currently precariously close to utilizing all of its available global oil production capacity." It also states that the looming crisis is increasing "U.S. and global vulnerability to disruption". During the preceding year, it says, Iraq had "effectively become a swing producer, turning its taps on and off when it has felt such action was in its strategic interest". If world demand for oil continues to rise, world shortages may possibly reduce the prominence of the US to that of "a poor developing country".


The report maintains that this crisis demands "a reassessment of the role of energy in American foreign policy ... Such a strategy will require difficult trade-offs, in both domestic and foreign policy. But there is no alternative. And there is no time to waste." By assuming "a leadership role in the formation of new rules of the game", the United States will put a stop to the strategic ambitions of its competitors.


When the ‘Bush Doctrine’ is considered with similar US foreign policy reports, it becomes clear that the US is determined to scupper at the outset the plans of any commercial rival, whoever they may be, particularly where oil is concerned. The US is well aware that Baghdad has already awarded $1.1 trillion in oil contracts to Europe, China and Russia and, naturally, all are anxious that their contracts will not be honoured by a US-dominated Iraq should Saddam be ousted. Thus, the recent UN resolution on Iraq can be viewed from a new angle. The long drawn-out diplomatic wrangling over the precise wording of the UN Security Council resolution has less to do with Saddam’s WMD and far more to do with who will have access to the second largest oil reserves on the planet. European ‘doves’ are not so much concerned with the morality of an attack upon Iraq, or with any related humans rights issues. Their bickering over the finer points of the UN resolution is simply a desperate attempt to ensure they do not lose out in the scramble for Iraq’s oil reserves.


In the meantime, be assured that if the oil-crazed Bush administration has its way, Saddam will be found to have breached this new UN Security Council resolution and the perfect pretext will have arisen for the US invasion of Iraq and the next stage in US global domination.

23/10/2002

Another War for Oil

This is the text for a leaflet I wrote for an anti-war demo (it incorporates a previous article on the subject)
Once again, in a further attempt to tighten US control over Middle Eastern oil supplies, and no doubt to distract attention from mega-domestic corporate wrongdoings, George W Bush has presented before the world the vision of time- honoured bogey-man Saddam Hussein lobbing weapons of mass destruction around as if they were going out of fashion.

With Osama bin Laden now clearly relegated to second place in the league of global spooks, Saddam has been dusted down and once more presented to us as the greatest existing threat to world peace. The news from Washington is that he still has stockpiles of chemical weapons and is close to building an atomic weapon. That neither George Bush nor Tony Blair has yet been able to authenticate the Iraqi threat with real evidence distracts transatlantic warmongers no more than the fact that Saddam is clearly aware that were he to use any such WMD his country would be instantly obliterated. And that US ally, Israel, is in breach of as many UN resolutions as the errant Iraq, which Bush cites as evidence of Saddam’s contempt for the world, is no more considered than continuous US flouting of UN resolutions.


Hypocrisy and Double Standards


Not so long ago, the US opposed, with one other country, a UN resolution condemning international terrorism and remains the only country to veto a Security Council resolution calling on all states to observe international law - clearly a response to the censure it received from the International Court of Justice for "unlawful use of force" during its terrorist war against Nicaragua, and to which it was also ordered to pay substantial reparations. Dismissing that particular ruling, the US went on to intensify that assault.

When it comes to international treaties, you could be forgiven for thinking George W loathes humanity. His administration has refused to accept the Kyoto agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions, which threaten environmental disaster. It has torn up the Anti Ballistic Missile Treaty - a move that threatens a new arms race with the US gearing up for "Star Wars" or the properly named National Missile Defence system. It has, as already stated, de-recognised a treaty setting up an International Criminal Court, maintaining that its politicians and troops should never be held to account for crimes they commit (see quote from the 2002 National security Strategy below).

On July 25th 2001, the US scuppered a decade of international negotiations by announcing, in Geneva, its intention not to back a draft protocol to reinforce the biological weapons and toxin convention which was initially signed in 1972. The reason for this decision was that it threatened US commercial interests. The protocol would have incorporated verification measures which would have given an international inspectorate admittance to laboratories in the signatory countries. We may well wonder just what the US is afraid the inspectorate would uncover at its thousands of biotech sites and defence plants. Just what are its commercial interests and secrets that it could even consider scuttling a treaty drawn up in the interests of humanity? Yet this same administration has been so vociferous in calling for a UN inspectorate to rummage about in Iraq.

Aware that world opinion was against him, Bush looked set to pursue his campaign via the UN, clearly hoping that Iraq’s failure to comply with requests from UN weapons inspectors would be the green light he needed to justify an attack upon Iraq. When Iraq offered to allow inspectors in to search for the weapons the US claimed Saddam had stockpiled, Bush declined the offer.

We may well wonder why the US pretends to be oblivious as to the chemical facilities Iraq might have. Certainly Saddam has the technological know-how. It came courtesy of the US when they sponsored Saddam in his war with Iran. Back in 1994, the United States Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs produced a report entitled U.S. Chemical and Biological Warfare-Related Dual Use Exports to Iraq and their Possible Impact on the Health Consequences of the Persian Gulf War. It concluded:

"The United States provided the Government of Iraq with ‘dual use’ licensed materials which assisted in the development of Iraqi chemical, biological, and missile-system programs, including: chemical warfare agent precursors; chemical warfare agent production facility plans and technical drawings…chemical warhead filling equipment; biological warfare related materials; missile fabrication equipment; and, missile-system guidance equipment

We can further observe that the country with the biggest nuclear arsenal on earth and the biggest stockpile of chemical weapons, and which has a proven track record of having used them, is the United States.

The United States has in fact 9,000 nuclear warheads, as does Russia. Britain, France and China have another 950 between them. On the other hand, Saddam doesn't even have one, as is widely acknowledged. Instead, they charge him with hoarding chemical and biological weapons, but then so do the countries just mentioned.


Furthermore, Dr Kathleen Sullivan of the Nuclear Weapons Education Project in New York observes: "The Bush administration is not only funding the further modernisation of nuclear weapons, but it is also proposing two new facilities in the US dedicated to the manufacture of chemical and biological weapons." She asserts that "the current doctrine on nuclear weapons use" in the US leaves little doubt that Bush is prepared to use them first.

Washington is certainly planning on some serious battles in the near future. Next year, the Bush administration will spend $396 billion on a war machine costing 26 times the combined military spending of the seven countries it recently announced it would not hesitate to hit with nuclear weapons - Iraq, Iran, Libya, North Korea, Sudan, Syria and Cuba – and a figure almost 300 times that of errant Iraq. Bush now intends to develop thr US war wagon, with a plan to raise this figure to an annual $451 billion by 2007.

We can wonder whether Israel’s nuclear arsenal is ever inspected – after all, it is an aggressive and unpredictable Middle Eastern country, just like Iraq, and with little regard for human rights, its neighbours or UN resolutions. The answer is no. And why? Because, like India and Pakistan, which are widely believed to have a couple of dozen nuclear warheads a piece, Israel is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It’s nuclear arsenal, therefore, exists outside international law and beyond the reach of international weapons inspectors. As Iraq has signed the treaty, it is therefore required to submit to such inspections.

And let’s not forget the key U.N. Security Council Resolution 687 of 1991 – aimed at prohibiting Iraq from developing WMDs; its preamble proclaims that all states must do everything possible to "establish a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the region of the Middle East." Though well cited by transatlantic warmongers, seeking justification for an attack on Iraq, it is not solely concerned with Iraq, as it calls for eradicating weapons of mass destruction and delivery systems right across the Middle East, including Israel, and the working towards a global ban on chemical weapons.

But to go back, for the moment, to Washington’s alleged concern for Iraq’s supposed chemical weapons, recent evidence reveals the US is guilty of playing a heinous game of double standards. Edward Hammond, in an article that appeared on the Counterpunch website (www.counterpunch.org/) on 25th September and entitled US Violates International Law - The Pentagon's Secret Chemical Weapons Program, highlights a report published a day earlier by the Sunshine Project (the text can be found at www.sunshine-project.org/) accusing the US military of conducting a chemical weapons research and development program in contravention of international arms control law. The charges follow an 18 month investigation of the Department of Defence’s Joint Non-Lethal Weapons Directorate (JNLWD).

The enquiry made wide-ranging use of the US Freedom of Information Act to obtain Pentagon records that form the prime basis of the allegations. An arrangement of documents, many of which are to be found on the Sunshine Project website, make obvious that JNLWD is operating an illegal and classified chemical weapons program. In particular, the Sunshine project accuses the JNLWD of:

1. Conducting a research and development program on toxic chemical agents for use as weapons, including anaesthetics and psychoactive substances, in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention;

2. Developing long-range military delivery devices for these chemicals, including an 81mm chemical mortar round, that violate the Chemical Weapons Convention.

3. Pursuing a chemical weapons program while fully cognizant that it violates the Chemical Weapons Convention and US Department of Defence regulations;

4. Attempting to cover up the illicit program by classifying as secret even its own legal interpretations of the Chemical Weapons Convention and attempting to block access to documents requested under US information freedom law.

Reports and Dossiers


On September 17th the Bush administration presented to the world it’s National Security Strategy of the United States. Though heavily influenced by the events of September 11th, the report is informed with the same belligerent, imperialist jargon that has fused many similar reports. In highlighting areas where the US feels its interests face the biggest challenge, it becomes simplistically clear that this is but a blue print for US domination of the globe. Control of Iraq’s oil reserves can perhaps best be seen as but the first stage of the battle for US global supremacy.

Section 8 states: “We are attentive to the possible renewal of old patterns of great power competition… Russia, India, and China…In pursuing advanced military capabilities that can threaten its neighbours in the Asia-Pacific region, China is following an outdated path that, in the end, will hamper its own pursuit of national greatness.”

Section 9 informs us: “the United States will require bases and stations within and beyond Western Europe and Northeast Asia, as well as temporary access arrangements for the long-distance deployment of U.S. forces.” It continues: “We must prepare …by developing assets such as advanced remote sensing, long-range precision strike capabilities, and transformed manoeuvre and expeditionary forces. This broad portfolio of military capabilities must also include the ability to defend the homeland, conduct information operations, ensure U.S. access to distant theatres, and protect critical U.S. infrastructure and assets in outer space.”

That same section tells us that US “forces will be strong enough to dissuade potential adversaries from pursuing a military build-up in hopes of surpassing, or equalling, the power of the United States…We will take the actions necessary to ensure that our efforts to meet our global security commitments and protect Americans are not impaired by the potential for investigations, inquiry, or prosecution by the International Criminal Court (ICC), whose jurisdiction does not extend to Americans and which we do not accept.”

Although now five years old, the US Space Command document ‘Vision 2020’ had similarly telegraphed US designs for the 21st Century and set in context the logic behind NMD: “Although unlikely to be challenged by a global peer competitor, the United States will continue to be challenged regionally. The globalisation of the world economy will also continue, with a widening between the haves and have nots. Accelerating rates of technological development will be increasingly driven by commercial interests not the military. Increased weapons lethality and precision will lead to new operational doctrines…..only military dominance will protect US interests and investments. “

Indeed such ideas were then hadly new. They were formulated by Paul Walfowitz (now Deputy Secretary of Defence) and Lew Libby (a National Security Adviser) and presented as a confidential Pentagon document in 1992 by none other than vice-president Dick Cheney. It argued that the US should take the necessary steps to stop any “…hostile power from dominating regions” whose resources would allow it to attain superpower stature; that it should discourage attempts by other advanced industrialised states to challenge US hegemony or upset the extant political and economic global set up and act to halt the ambitions of any prospective global competitor.

It is in the above context that we can perhaps set Tony Blair’s 50 page dossier Iraq’s Weapons of Mass Destruction – the assessment of the British Government, which was coincidentally presented to the British public within days of the publication of the National Security Strategy of the United States.

Blair’s dossier – an attempt to whip up British support for the US venture against Iraq - was largely penned in Washington by the same discredited intelligence agencies that offered no forewarning of the attacks of September 11th. The Foreign Office here neglected even to edit the dossier’s American jargon. Its 50 pages begin with pure distortion, claiming that a report by the International Institute of Strategic Studies suggested Iraq could assemble nuclear weapons within months. In actual fact, the Institute's report concluded that Iraq was years from even developing, let alone perfecting and making, nuclear weapons – a fact that is eventually admitted to towards the end.

Writing for the Znet website (www,Zmag.org/) on 25th September, Robert Fisk observes of the dossier: “Reading it can only fill a decent human being with shame and outrage. Its pages are final proof – if the contents are true – that a massive crime against humanity has been committed in Iraq. For if the details of Saddam's building of weapons of mass destruction are correct…it means that our massive, obstructive, brutal policy of UN sanctions has totally failed. In other words, half a million Iraqi children were killed by us – for nothing.”

Of course there is little testimony in Blair’s dossier that was not already widely available. What there is plenty of in the dossier is conjecture . Instead of the cast-iron definites you would assume would lend the report credence, we come across terms like “there is no definite intelligence”, “it appears”, “is almost certainly”, “difficult to judge”, “secret intelligence sources”, “I believe” and a fair few “ifs”.

With this chunky bit of evidence presented to the British people, Blair expected a popular mandate to go to war. Not that this would be a last resort to stop Saddam developing WMD, as Iraq had in fact agreed to submit to the weapons inspections initially suggested by Washington and London. Bush however was having none of it – as far as he was concerned Saddam could not be trusted. He demands war and Saddam is not going to get out of one that easy. Indeed, US Secretary of State Colin Powell openly announced that America might block the return of United Nations’ weapons inspectors to Iraq. The US is understandably afraid that Iraq's unrestricted offer to the inspectors will "damage the coalition," that he will take from under their noses their excuse for a full scale attack and the theft of Iraqi oil.


The Coming War for Iraqi Oil


There can be no other reason for the US obsession with Iraq than the promise of securing future oils supplies and the profits they bring. What remains imprecise is the US game plan in the region: to use Iraq as a springboard to capture Iran and thus secure a shorter and cheaper route to Gulf ports for Caspian oil, or maybe to get a tighter grip on Saudi oil less there be Islamic fundamentalist blowback resulting from the ‘war on terror’? Or maybe, with China estimated to equal US demands for oil within 20 years, a China the US sess as a real threat to its commercial interests, the foray into Iraq is part of a larger a plan to head off future problems now. NO? Would there be so much US concern if Iraq exported dates only.

Clearly seeing through the current charade, Mo Mowlam, once a member of Blair’s cabinet, wrote in The Guardian (5th September): "This whole affair has nothing to do with a threat from Iraq - there isn't one. It has nothing to do with the war against terrorism or with morality. Saddam Hussein is obviously an evil man, but when we were selling arms to him to keep the Iranians in check he was the same evil man he is today. He was a pawn then and he is a pawn now. In the same way he served Western interests then, he is now the distraction for the sleight of hand to protect the West's supply of oil.”

As the Bush administration continues to beat the war drums, mustering support for its attack upon Iraq, there are those who still steadfastly maintain that the US-UK position on Iraq has nothing at all do with oil and that Bush and Blair are quite sincerely concerned about peace and democracy and ridding the world of a regime that threatens global harmony with its weapons of mass destruction. The evidence, however, suggests that Western concerns with Iraq are far less to do with its alleged threat to world peace and everything to do with control of the region’s oil supplies.

In a leading article in the Washington Post on 15th September, staff writers Dan Morgan and David Ottaway, wrote extensively about Western oil interests in Iraq, observing that whilst senior Bush administration officials say they have not begun to focus on the issues involving oil and Iraq, “American and foreign oil companies have already begun manoeuvring for a stake in the country's huge proven reserves of 112 billion barrels of crude oil, the largest in the world outside Saudi Arabia.”

An Observer investigation, published on 6th October, began: “Oil is emerging as the key factor in US attempts to secure the support of Russia and France for military action against Iraq…The Bush administration, intimately entwined with the global oil industry, is keen to pounce on Iraq’s massive untapped reserves, the second biggest in the world after Saudi Arabia’s”

However revealing this may appear, more damning evidence of US intentions in the Middle East actually emerged some time ago. In April 2001, some five months before ‘September 11th’, a little heard of report was submitted to vice-president Dick Cheney, originally commissioned by James Baker who had been the US Secretary of State under George Bush Senior. It is entitled Strategic Energy Policy Challenges For The 21st Century and describes how the US is confronting the biggest energy crisis in its history. The report specifically targets Saddam as an obstacle to US interests because of his control of Iraqi oilfields and suggests the use of 'military intervention' as a way to access and control Iraqi oilfields and help the US out of its energy crisis.

One passage reads: 'Iraq remains a destabilising influence to...the flow of oil to international markets from the Middle East. Saddam Hussein has also demonstrated a willingness to threaten to use the oil weapon and to use his own export programme to manipulate oil markets…. This would display his personal power, enhance his image as a pan-Arab leader ... and pressure others for a lifting of economic sanctions against his regime. The United States should conduct an immediate policy review toward Iraq including military, energy, economic and political/diplomatic assessments. The United States should then develop an integrated strategy with key allies in Europe and Asia, and with key countries in the Middle East, to restate goals with respect to Iraqi policy and to restore a cohesive coalition of key allies.”

According to the report’s compilers, the main cause of any coming crisis will be 'Middle East tension', which means the 'chances are greater than at any point in the last two decades of an oil supply disruption'. It admits that the US will never be 'energy independent' and is becoming too dependent on foreign powers supplying it with oil and gas. The answer is to put oil at the centre of the administration - 'a reassessment of the role of energy in American foreign policy'.

The report initially contemplates an arms-control programme in Iraq and suggests this may lead to a relaxation of oil sanctions which might make for better trading on world oil markets. However, it then acknowledges that such an arms-control policy would prove over-costly as it would “encourage Saddam Hussein to boast of his 'victory' against the United States, fuel his ambition and potentially strengthen his regime”. It continues: “Once so encouraged, and if his access to oil revenues was to be increased by adjustments in oil sanctions, Saddam Hussein could be a greater security threat to US allies in the region…”

With US oil reserves estimated to last no more than 20 years and the with the US the biggest consumer and the biggest net importer of oil (11 million barrels a day, which is a seventh of global production), there is a growing reliance on Middle Eastern oil. Twenty years ago the US imported just over 30% of its oil from the Middle East. That figure now stands at 52%. And in a world where the US has economic rivals, with their own growing demand for oil (i.e. China’s demands are increasing by 3.5% per year), a war to secure control of the ‘greatest prize’ makes sound sense to the Bush administration.

Additionally, in the post 9/11 world, where anti-American feeling runs high in traditional militant Islamic societies, the US also realises it can no longer remain dependent on Saudi oil supplies. As the US needs an oil supply totalling 20 million barrels of crude oil a day, it now seeks a supplier that can perhaps meet half of these needs – Iraq! With the present high global prices of oil sucking the US into a recession it is important also that the US breaks the Saudi stranglehold on the oil cartel Opec.

And what of the Bush administration and its own personal oil interests? Well make no mistake about it, the president, the vice-president, the defence secretary and the deputy defence secretary, the chairman of the NSC and the head of the CIA all have oil connections. The most hawkish US regime ever assembled has its own private reason for a ‘war’ with Iraq.

Four years ago, Halliburton, the US oil equipment company of which Dick Cheney was chief executive, sold parts to Iraq to help with the rebuilding of an infrastructure that had been devastated during the 1991 Gulf war. Halliburton did £15 million of business with Saddam - a man Cheney now compares to Adolf Hitler. Moreover, Halliburton is one of the US companies thought by experts to be queuing up for the profits resulting from any clean-up operation in the wake of another US-led attack on Iraq.

In the past few years, and increasingly since Bush came to power and most evidently since 9/11, the US has spread its military tentacles - establishing bases in twelve new countries in the past year alone. US forces now surround over 80% of the world’s oil reserves. They have encompassed the Caspian region which has an estimated 70-200 billion barrels of oil and 11 trillion cubic feet of known gas deposits. And still with gas, Iran, neighbouring Iraq, and part of Bush’s dreaded ‘Axis of Evil’ controls 80% of the world’s gas reserves. And with gas estimated to account for 30% of world energy production by 2020, the US game plan becomes increasingly difficult to dismiss as nonsense.

Moreover, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council – the US, Britain, France, Russia and China - have international oil companies with major stakes in a ‘regime change’ in Baghdad. And since the Gulf War of 1991, companies from more than a dozen nations, inclusive of France, Russia, China, India, Italy, Vietnam and Algeria, have either negotiated contracts or sought to reach agreements in principle to develop Iraqi oil fields, to revamp extant facilities there or explore undeveloped fields. Most of the deals, however, are in abeyance until the lifting of U.N. sanctions.

Sources in Russia have expressed serious concerns about a US attack on Iraq and any ‘regime change’ this may result in, fearing that a post-Saddam, pro-US, government might just not honour the extraction contracts that Baghdad has already signed with Moscow and that all such contracts would be declared null and void. Many in Russia now fear that the US has already brokered deals with the Iraq opposition and despite recent dialogue between Moscow and Washington remain unconvinced of Washington’s claim that Russian contracts would be legitimate.

One Russian UN Official reportedly told The Observer (6th October: “The concern of my government is that concessions agreed between Baghdad and numerous enterprises will be reneged upon, and that US companies will enter to take the greatest share of those existing contracts.”

Such fears are perhaps not unfounded. Ahmed Chalabi, leader of the Iraqi National Congress (an umbrella organisation of Iraqi opposition groups backed by the US), recently announced that he preferred the creation of a US-led consortium to develop Iraq's oil fields, which have deteriorated in the ten years of UN sanctions, saying "American companies will have a big shot at Iraqi oil." (Washington Post)

Back in 1997, Russia’s biggest oil company, Lukoil, signed a $20 bn contract to tap into the West Qurna oilfield. In October of last year, the Russian oil services company Slavneft purportedly signed a $52 million service contract to drill at the Tuba field, also in southern Iraq. A proposed $40bn Iraqi-Russian economic agreement also reportedly includes opportunities for Russian companies to explore for oil in Iraq's western desert.

French company Total Fina Elf had negotiated for rights to develop the huge Majnoon field, near the Iranian border, which could contain up to 30 billion barrels of oil. But in July 2001, Iraq announced it would cease giving French firms preference in the award of such contracts because of its decision to abide by UN sanctions, and then gave a $90 bn contract to Russian oil company Zarubezhneft to drill the bin Umar oilfield.

During the first two days of October, at the first US-Russia Commercial Energy Summit in Houston, Texas, emphasis was placed on Russia increasing its oil exports to the US, which is desperate to reduce its reliance on the Middle East. Off stage, talks were in progress about a series of contracts held by Russian oil companies. According to Vaget Alekperov, Lukoil chairman, in an interview with the Financial Times on October 3rd, the Russian government secured an agreement that if, or when, the Baghdad regime is toppled, "the [Iraqi] law is the law, the state is still there.”

Mikhail Margelov, of the international affairs committee of the Russian federation council (the upper house of parliament), afterwards told Reuters that Moscow expected "equal, fruitful, cooperation" with the US "especially in the privatisation of the Iraqi oil sector".

Following the Houston summit, Russian energy minister Igor Yusufov and economy minister German Greg travelled with US commerce secretary Donald Evans and energy secretary Spenser Abraham for talks with Bush's vice-president Dick Cheney and national security advisor Condoleeza Rice, undoubtedly in order for the latter to reassure the former that a Russia supportive of an attack upon Iraq would indeed get its share of the spoils once Saddam is ousted.

Apparently, plans to safeguard Russia's interests in Iraq have been under discussion for months in Washington. Prior to the Bush-Putin summit in May, Ariel Cohen, an analyst with the Heritage Foundation suggested an offer to "support the Russian companies' contractual rights", arguing that Lukoil could sway Russian foreign policy, and that a deal could be brokered to Washington's and Moscow's mutual advantage.

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, chief of Russia’s second biggest oil company, Yukos, later said in a Washington Post interview that "if there were sufficient political will", one possibility was to create a Russian-American oil consortia to exploit Iraqi

Clearly, like the capitalists state it has always been, Russia wants to make sure that, whatsoever deals the US agrees upon with anti-Saddam Iraqi politicians or Kurdish nationalists, their existing contracts remain valid. And this, more than the repayment of Iraq's $7bn Soviet-era debt, is the decisive factor in deciding how Russia casts its vote on the UN Security Council.

R. James Woolsey, former CIA director and a leading protagonist in the US anti-Iraq campaign, is one of many all too aware of Russian and French qualms regarding the whole affair. Cognizant of the need to secure French and Russian support he commented: "It's pretty straightforward, France and Russia have oil companies and interests in Iraq. They should be told that if they are of assistance in moving Iraq toward decent government, we'll do the best we can to ensure that the new government and American companies work closely with them." In other words, ‘scratch our backs and we’ll scratch yours.’

France is listening and, like Russia, is wondering whether once Saddam is ousted, its companies will lose out to US oil interests. Not only is it now thought to be negotiating a slice of the coming action – a bigger role than the US afforded it in the 1991 Gulf War – but the state-owned Total Fina Elf oil company has also been in talks in the US about the distribution of the spoils of war.

As Washington’s crusade against Iraq offers huge opportunities for international oil corporations, it also exposes serious risks and worries for the global oil market should there indeed be ‘regime change’ in Iraq. As the Washington Post reported: “Access to Iraqi oil and profits will depend on the nature and intentions of a new government. Whether Iraq remains a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, for example, or seeks an independent role, free of the OPEC cartel's quotas, will have an impact on oil prices and the flow of investments to competitors such as Russia, Venezuela and Angola.” (15th September).

Consider the case of Russia. Oil companies such as Lukoil have an important financial concern in developing Iraqi fields; however, a general lowering of oil prices that may result from a flood of Iraqi oil into world markets could jeopardise Russian government attempts to attract foreign investment in its untapped domestic fields, because a drop in world oil prices could make costly ventures to unlock Siberian oil reserves far less attractive.

Conversely, the knife cuts both ways. In the short term, Russia is poised to make a tidy profit if a US invasion of Iraq sparks an immediate hike in oil prices, with its oil companies already negotiating to sell the US oil at two-thirds of the existing market price.

Though having initially urged caution on the Iraq affair, it now looks likely that both Russia and France will give their blessing for a US-led assault on Iraq. And who could blame them? Their governments are little more than the executives of their respective master classes and in the cut- throat world of capitalist competition they must be seen to be promoting their profit-oriented interests, and to hell with the cost of life. In Moscow, Paris, and in state capitals the world over, governments will always maintain that oil takes priority over blood.

Months ago, defending the belligerent stance of the US in its ‘war on terror’ Bush said that ‘inaction is not an option.’ Blair now reiterates this platitude, mantra-fashion. We agree. For the class conscious, inaction is definitely ‘not an option’. As we see it, it is the inaction and complacency of the working class that has enabled the horrors we associate with capitalism, including war, to continue. For almost a century we have warned of the dangers of political apathy, of trusting in leaders, of accepting all that governments say without question and of striving to reform a system that can endure no end of reforms. It is our silence, our inaction, more than anything, that Bush and Blair will depend on in coming months when they seek to legitimise an attack upon Iraq - that same silence the master class toasts each day. Our inaction remains as an important element in our continuing exploitation, for the master class see in it our consent for their excesses.

If you’re into demonstrating against war, then take our advice and invest in a sturdy anti-war banner, for if you are prepared to oppose war without opposing the very system that gives rise to it, then you’ll be demonstrating for quite some time to come. Alternatively you can join the movement which believes that to end wars you must first put an end capitalism. An uphill struggle? No more so than the campaign to end war against the backdrop of the profit system.

21/10/2002

The US and the Threat of Bio-Terrorism

On 22nd January 1999, the New York Times reported President Bill Clinton as having said that what kept him awake at night was a fear of biological warfare. In light of the recent deaths from anthrax in the US and the consequent panic this has created from coast to coast, it is fair to say that many millions now share this fear. Postal workers now go about their everyday work wearing masks and gloves and there is widespread caution about opening even the most harmless–looking envelopes and packages. Meanwhile the US security services are working around the clock in an attempt to find out who is behind this new wave of bio-terrorism. Whilst many Republican hawks have already pointed the finger of blame at Iraq, the more cautious are suggesting this could be the work of home-grown right-wing fanatics. Military analysts and all manner of White House advisers have hurriedly placed the issue of the threat of bio-terrorism at the top of their agendas, others have drawn up nightmare scenarios, invoking images of mass outbreaks of plague and other deadly diseases.

What is forgotten amongst all of the current hysteria is a related concern which we reported a few months ago. Namely, how on July 25th of this year, the US scuppered a decade of international negotiations by announcing, in Geneva, its intention not to back a draft protocol to reinforce the biological weapons and toxin convention which was initially signed in 1972. The reason for this decision was that it threatened US commercial interests. The protocol would have incorporated verification measures which would have given an international inspectorate admittance to laboratories in the signatory countries. We wonder just what the US is afraid the inspectorate would uncover at its thousands of biotech sites and defence plants. Just what are its commercial interests and secrets that it could even consider scuttling a treaty drawn up in the interests of humanity? And was it not the US who was so vociferous in calling for a UN inspectorate to rummage about in Iraq for months?

What few Americans realise, or care not to know, is their own government’s complicity in the use of chemical and biological agents – not just against ‘enemies’ but on its own people. For instance, in 1952, the US dropped an average 70,000 gallons of napalm per day on Korea. In 1980, it was revealed between 1967-9, the US sprayed Agent Orange over 23,607 acres of the southern boundary of the demilitarised zone in North Korea. For almost ten years the US sprayed tens of thousands of tonnes of poisons over 3 million acres of South Vietnam, inclusive of 500 lbs of dioxin (3 ounces of this in the water supply is estimated to be able to wipe out New York City) and US forces in September 1970, acting under ‘Operation Tailwind’ used aerosolised sarin gas to prepare their attack upon a Laotian village. Moreover, the Los Angeles Times reported on June 18th 1990: “US military institutions have polluted the drinking water of the Pacific island of Guam, pored tonnes of toxic chemicals into Subic Bay in the Philippines, leaked carcinogens into the water source of a German spa, spewed tonnes of sulphurous coal smoke into the skies of central Europe and pumped millions of gallons of raw sewage into the oceans.”

At the end of World War 2, the judges at Nuremberg, who had scrutinized reports on the nazi medical trials, formulated a set of principles which became known as The Nuremberg Code. Its first tenet stipulates: “The voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential.” It would seem that this is a tenet the US has since forgotten. For 20 years the CIA and the Defence Department conducted tests that exposed millions of Americans to all manner of bacteria and chemical particles, without once informing the potentially affected.

The US Army has since admitted that in the 30 years following the close of the Nuremberg trials 239 populated areas across the USA were blanketed with various organisms during tests to gauge dissemination patterns, weather effects and dosages.

In one week in September 1950, in six simulated biological attacks, the US Army sailed a ship down the San Francisco Bay spraying Bacillus globigii and Serratia marcescens inland, at one point these chemicals forming a two-mile long cloud. Within days, San Francisco’s Stanford University Hospital reported its first cases of Serratia marcescens, the first ever instances at the hospital.

In 1953, there were 61 releases of Zinc cadmium sulphide in four sections of the city of Minneapolis, in spite of the known effects of this chemical: lung damage, kidney inflammation, liver degeneration. That same year, the were 35 releases of Zinc cadmium sulphide in St Louis and throughout the Washington DC area. In 1955, the CIA carried out open air whooping cough experiments around the Tampa Bay area of Florida, and in 4 days in February 1956, this same unaccountable organisation sprayed New York streets and the Holland and Lincoln tunnels.

In the 60’s the US army released bacteria at Washington’s National Airport to study the effects of a smallpox attack, a similar test being carried out at Washington’s Greyhound bus terminal, and open-air Zinc cadmium sulphide tests were again carried out – 115 of them – in Cambridge, Maryland in 1969.

The true scale and extent of similar experiments on the US public will perhaps never be fully known. Neither has fresh evidence come to light about more recent tests. Interestingly, though, in 1999 the government planned to release a strain of bacteria into the atmosphere from the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico to test experimental bio-warfare detectors. The public outcry when this was revealed was such that the plan was immediately dropped.

On numerous occasions the US has voted alone against proposed negotiations on chemical and bacteriological weapons at the UN. It has moved to nullify the 1972 biological weapons and toxins convention and has never hesitated to use chemical and bacteriological agents on humans, friend or foe. Whilst we appreciate the anxiety of workers throughout the USA as they face who knows what future threats from bio-terrorists, we remain scornful of the US government and its corporate backers who, all to ready to scramble for the moral high ground in times of national security, are ever keen their own citizens suffer massive bouts of amnesia at such times and forget, and indeed disbelieve, that their protectors would just as soon poison them if they thought that in doing so a profit could be made.

12/10/2002

The Coming War for Iraq's Oil

As the Bush administration continues to beat the war drums, mustering support for its attack upon Iraq, there are those who still maintain that the US-UK position on Iraq has nothing at all do with oil and that Bush and Blair are quite sincerely concerned about peace and democracy and ridding the world of a regime that threatens global harmony with its weapons of mass destruction. The evidence, however, suggests that Western concerns with Iraq are far less to do with its alleged threat to world peace and everything to do with control of the region’s oil supplies.


In a leading article in the Washington Post on 15th September, staff writers Dan Morgan and David Ottaway, wrote extensively about Western oil interests in Iraq, observing that whilst senior Bush administration officials say they have not begun to focus on the issues involving oil and Iraq, “American and foreign oil companies have already begun manoeuvring for a stake in the country's huge proven reserves of 112 billion barrels of crude oil, the largest in the world outside Saudi Arabia.”


An Observer investigation, published on 6th October, began: “Oil is emerging as the key factor in US attempts to secure the support of Russia and France for military action against Iraq…The Bush administration, intimately entwined with the global oil industry, is keen to pounce on Iraq’s massive untapped reserves, the second biggest in the world after Saudi Arabia’s”


However revealing this may appear, more damning evidence of US intentions in the Middle East actually emerged some time ago. In April 2001, some five months before ‘September 11th’, a little heard of report was submitted to vice-president Dick Cheney, originally commissioned by James Baker who had been the US Secretary of State under George Bush Senior. It is entitled Strategic Energy Policy Challenges For The 21st Century and describes how the US is confronting the biggest energy crisis in its history. The report specifically targets Saddam as an obstacle to US interests because of his control of Iraqi oilfields and suggests the use of 'military intervention' as a way to access and control Iraqi oilfields and help the US out of its energy crisis.


One passage reads: 'Iraq remains a destabilising influence to...the flow of oil to international markets from the Middle East. Saddam Hussein has also demonstrated a willingness to threaten to use the oil weapon and to use his own export programme to manipulate oil markets…. This would display his personal power, enhance his image as a pan-Arab leader ... and pressure others for a lifting of economic sanctions against his regime. The United States should conduct an immediate policy review toward Iraq including military, energy, economic and political/diplomatic assessments. The United States should then develop an integrated strategy with key allies in Europe and Asia, and with key countries in the Middle East, to restate goals with respect to Iraqi policy and to restore a cohesive coalition of key allies.”


According to the report’s compilers, the main cause of any coming crisis will be 'Middle East tension', which means the 'chances are greater than at any point in the last two decades of an oil supply disruption'. It admits that the US will never be 'energy independent' and is becoming too dependent on foreign powers supplying it with oil and gas. The answer is to put oil at the centre of the administration - 'a reassessment of the role of energy in American foreign policy'.


The report initially contemplates an arms-control programme in Iraq and suggests this may lead to a relaxation of oil sanctions which might make for better trading on world oil markets. However, it then acknowledges that such an arms-control policy would prove over-costly as it would “encourage Saddam Hussein to boast of his 'victory' against the United States, fuel his ambition and potentially strengthen his regime”. It continues: “Once so encouraged, and if his access to oil revenues was to be increased by adjustments in oil sanctions, Saddam Hussein could be a greater security threat to US allies in the region…”


With US oil reserves estimated to last no more than 20 years and the with the US the biggest consumer and the biggest net importer of oil (11 million barrels a day, which is a seventh of global production), there is a growing reliance on Middle Eastern oil. Twenty years ago the US imported just over 30% of its oil from the Middle East. That figure now stands at 52%. And in a world where the US has economic rivals, with their own growing demand for oil (i.e. China’s demands are increasing by 3.5% per year), a war to secure control of the ‘greatest prize’ makes sound sense to the Bush administration.


Additionally, in the post 9/11 world, where anti-American feeling runs high in traditional militant Islamic societies, the US also realises it can no longer remain dependent on Saudi oil supplies. As the US needs an oil supply totalling 20 million barrels of crude oil a day, it now seeks a supplier that can perhaps meet half of these needs – Iraq! With the present high global prices of oil sucking the US into a recession it is important also that the US breaks the Saudi stranglehold on the oil cartel Opec.


And what of the Bush administration and its own personal oil interests? Well make no mistake about it, the president, the vice-president, the defence secretary and the deputy defence secretary, the chairman of the NSC and the head of the CIA all have oil connections. The most hawkish US regime ever assembled has its own private reason for a ‘war’ with Iraq.


Four years ago, Halliburton, the US oil equipment company of which Dick Cheney was chief executive, sold parts to Iraq to help with the rebuilding of an infrastructure that had been devastated during the 1991 Gulf war. Halliburton did £15 million of business with Saddam - a man Cheney now compares to Adolf Hitler. Moreover, Halliburton is one of the US companies thought by experts to be queuing up for the profits resulting from any clean-up operation in the wake of another US-led attack on Iraq.


In the past few years, and increasingly since Bush came to power and most evidently since 9/11, the US has spread its military tentacles - establishing bases in twelve new countries in the past year alone. US forces now surround over 80% of the world’s oil reserves. They have encompassed the Caspian region which has an estimated 70-200 billion barrels of oil and 11 trillion cubic feet of known gas deposits. And still with gas, Iran, neighbouring Iraq, and part of Bush’s dreaded ‘Axis of Evil’ controls 80% of the world’s gas reserves. And with gas estimated to account for 30% of world energy production by 2020, the US game plan becomes increasingly difficult to dismiss as nonsense.


Moreover, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council – the US, Britain, France, Russia and China - have international oil companies with major stakes in a ‘regime change’ in Baghdad. And since the Gulf War of 1991, companies from more than a dozen nations, inclusive of France, Russia, China, India, Italy, Vietnam and Algeria, have either negotiated contracts or sought to reach agreements in principle to develop Iraqi oil fields, to revamp extant facilities there or explore undeveloped fields. Most of the deals, however, are in abeyance until the lifting of U.N. sanctions.


Sources in Russia have expressed serious concerns about a US attack on Iraq and any ‘regime change’ this may result in, fearing that a post-Saddam, pro-US, government might just not honour the extraction contracts that Baghdad has already signed with Moscow and that all such contracts would be declared null and void. Many in Russia now fear that the US has already brokered deals with the Iraq opposition and despite recent dialogue between Moscow and Washington remain unconvinced of Washington’s claim that Russian contracts would be legitimate.


One Russian UN Official reportedly told The Observer (6th October: “The concern of my government is that concessions agreed between Baghdad and numerous enterprises will be reneged upon, and that US companies will enter to take the greatest share of those existing contracts.”


Such fears are perhaps not unfounded. Ahmed Chalabi, leader of the Iraqi National Congress (an umbrella organisation of Iraqi opposition groups backed by the US), recently announced that he preferred the creation of a US-led consortium to develop Iraq's oil fields, which have deteriorated in the ten years of UN sanctions, saying "American companies will have a big shot at Iraqi oil." (Washington Post)


Back in 1997, Russia’s biggest oil company, Lukoil, signed a $20 bn contract to tap into the West Qurna oilfield. In October of last year, the Russian oil services company Slavneft purportedly signed a $52 million service contract to drill at the Tuba field, also in southern Iraq. A proposed $40bn Iraqi-Russian economic agreement also reportedly includes opportunities for Russian companies to explore for oil in Iraq's western desert.


French company Total Fina Elf had negotiated for rights to develop the huge Majnoon field, near the Iranian border, which could contain up to 30 billion barrels of oil. But in July 2001, Iraq announced it would cease giving French firms preference in the award of such contracts because of its decision to abide by UN sanctions, and then gave a $90 bn contract to Russian oil company Zarubezhneft to drill the bin Umar oilfield.


During the first two days of October, at the first US-Russia Commercial Energy Summit in Houston, Texas, emphasis was placed on Russia increasing its oil exports to the US, which is desperate to reduce its reliance on the Middle East. Off stage, talks were in progress about a series of contracts held by Russian oil companies. According to Vaget Alekperov, Lukoil chairman, in an interview with the Financial Times on October 3rd, the Russian government secured an agreement that if, or when, the Baghdad regime is toppled, "the [Iraqi] law is the law, the state is still there.”


Mikhail Margelov, of the international affairs committee of the Russian federation council (the upper house of parliament), afterwards told Reuters that Moscow expected "equal, fruitful, cooperation" with the US "especially in the privatisation of the Iraqi oil sector".


Following the Houston summit, Russian energy minister Igor Yusufov and economy minister German Greg travelled with US commerce secretary Donald Evans and energy secretary Spenser Abraham for talks with Bush's vice-president Dick Cheney and national security advisor Condoleeza Rice, undoubtedly in order for the latter to reassure the former that a Russia supportive of an attack upon Iraq would indeed get its share of the spoils once Saddam is ousted.


Apparently, plans to safeguard Russia's interests in Iraq have been under discussion for months in Washington. Prior to the Bush-Putin summit in May, Ariel Cohen, an analyst with the Heritage Foundation suggested an offer to "support the Russian companies' contractual rights", arguing that Lukoil could sway Russian foreign policy, and that a deal could be brokered to Washington's and Moscow's mutual advantage.


Mikhail Khodorkovsky, chief of Russia’s second biggest oil company, Yukos, later said in a Washington Post interview that "if there were sufficient political will", one possibility was to create a Russian-American oil consortia to exploit Iraqi


Clearly, like the capitalists state it has always been, Russia wants to make sure that, whatsoever deals the US agrees upon with anti-Saddam Iraqi politicians or Kurdish nationalists, their existing contracts remain valid. And this, more than the repayment of Iraq's $7bn Soviet-era debt, is the decisive factor in deciding how Russia casts its vote on the UN Security Council.


R. James Woolsey, former CIA director and a leading protagonist in the US anti-Iraq campaign, is one of many all too aware of Russian and French qualms regarding the whole affair. Cognizant of the need to secure French and Russian support he commented: "It's pretty straightforward, France and Russia have oil companies and interests in Iraq. They should be told that if they are of assistance in moving Iraq toward decent government, we'll do the best we can to ensure that the new government and American companies work closely with them." In other words, ‘scratch our backs and we’ll scratch yours.’


France is listening and, like Russia, is wondering whether once Saddam is ousted, its companies will lose out to US oil interests. Not only is it now thought to be negotiating a slice of the coming action – a bigger role than the US afforded it in the 1991 Gulf War – but the state-owned Total Fina Elf oil company has also been in talks in the US about the distribution of the spoils of war.


As Washington’s crusade against Iraq offers huge opportunities for international oil corporations, it also exposes serious risks and worries for the global oil market should there indeed be ‘regime change’ in Iraq. As the Washington Post reported: “Access to Iraqi oil and profits will depend on the nature and intentions of a new government. Whether Iraq remains a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, for example, or seeks an independent role, free of the OPEC cartel's quotas, will have an impact on oil prices and the flow of investments to competitors such as Russia, Venezuela and Angola.” (15th September).


Consider the case of Russia. Oil companies such as Lukoil have an important financial concern in developing Iraqi fields; however, a general lowering of oil prices that may result from a flood of Iraqi oil into world markets could jeopardise Russian government attempts to attract foreign investment in its untapped domestic fields, because a drop in world oil prices could make costly ventures to unlock Siberian oil reserves far less attractive.


Conversely, the knife cuts both ways. In the short term, Russia is poised to make a tidy profit if a US invasion of Iraq sparks an immediate hike in oil prices, with its oil companies already negotiating to sell the US oil at two-thirds of the existing market price.


Though having initially urged caution on the Iraq affair, it now looks likely that both Russia and France will give their blessing for a US-led assault on Iraq. And who could blame them? Their governments are little more than the executives of their respective master classes and in the cut- throat world of capitalist competition they must be seen to be promoting their profit-oriented interests, and to hell with the cost of life. In Moscow, Paris, and in state capitals the world over, governments will always maintain that oil takes priority over blood.